Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Chapter:1 Financial Markets, Instruments and Investment Basics

What is an Investment


An investment is the current commitment of money and other resources in the expectation of reaping future benefits. For example, an individual might purchase shares of stock anticipating that the future proceeds from the shares would be high enough to justify the time that the money is tied up as well as the risk of the investment. In short, making an investment is to sacrifice something of value now, expecting to benefit from that sacrifice later.




Section :2

Real vs. Financial Assets


At the broadest level, investments can be classified into two categories:

I) Investments in Real Assets           
Real assets are tangible assets that determine the productive capacity of an economy, that is, the goods and services its members can create. These include land, buildings, machines, and knowledge that can be used to produce goods and services. Other common examples of investments in Real Assets are paintings, antiques, precious metals and stones, classic cars etc.

II) Investments in Financial Assets
Financial Assets, or more commonly known as Securities, include stocks, bonds, unit trusts etc. In essence, financial assets or securities represent legal claim on future financial benefits. These are no more than sheets of paper and do not contribute directly to the productive capacity of the economy. Instead, these financial assets are the means by which individuals hold their claims on real assets and the income generated by these real assets.

While both real and financial assets represent important avenues for investments, in this Tutorial investments in financial assets or securities would primarily be focused on. However, most of the concepts and tools discussed here can also be used for analyzing investments in real assets.


Section :3

Financial Markets


CompleteNo.Name
1Marketable Securities
2Non-Marketable Securities
Financial Markets are categorized into: 1- Money Market 2- Capital Market 3- Securities Market. Here we will discuss Securities Market, which can be divided into markets for Marketable and Non-Marketable Securities.


Section :4

Money Market Securities


Money market securities sometimes are called cash equivalents, or just cash for short. The money market is a sub-sector of the fixed-income market. It consists of very short-term debt securities that are highly marketable. Many of these securities trade in large denominations and are out of the reach of individual investors. Money Market Mutual Funds, however, are easily accessible to small investors. These mutual funds pool the resources of many investors and purchase a wide variety of money market securities on their behalf. Most commonly traded money-market instruments include:
  • Treasury Bills: Government debt security with a maturity that is less than one year. Treasury bills are issued through a competitive bidding process at a discount from par. This means they do not pay fixed interest payments like most bonds do.
  • Certificates of Deposits (CDs): A savings certificate entitling the bearer to receive interest. A CD bears a maturity date, a specified interest rate, and can be issued in any denomination. CDs are generally issued by commercial banks.

  • Commercial Paper: An unsecured, short-term loan issued by a corporation, typically for financing accounts receivable and inventories. It is usually issued at a discount reflecting prevailing market interest rates.

  • Bankers’ Acceptances: A short-term credit investment created by a non-financial firm and guaranteed by a bank. Acceptances are traded at discounts from face value in the secondary market. Bankers' acceptances are very similar to T-bills and are often used in money market funds.

  • Eurodollars: U.S. dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks or foreign branches of American banks. By locating outside of the United States, Eurodollars escape regulation by the Federal Reserve Board.

  • Repurchase Agreement (Repos): A form of short term borrowing for dealers in government securities. The dealer sells the government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day. For the party selling the security (and agreeing to repurchase it in the future) it is a repo; for the party on the other end of the transaction (buying the security and agreeing to sell in the future) it is a reverse repurchase agreement.

  • Federal Funds: Funds deposited to regional Federal Reserve Banks by commercial banks, including funds in excess of reserve requirements. These non-interest bearing deposits are lent out at the Fed funds rate to other banks unable to meet overnight reserve requirements.

  • Brokers’ Call: The interest rate relative to which margin loans are quoted. Also known as the call loan rate.
An important measure that differentiates money market securities from capital market securities is the time to maturity. Money market securities, essentially, have maturity period of one year or less.



CompleteNo.Name
1Fixed-Income Capital Market
2Equity Market
3Derivatives Market
Capital markets, in contrast, include longer term and riskier securities. Their maturity is typically more than one year or, in some cases, indefinite. Securities in the capital market are much more diverse than those found within the money market. Examples include stocks, long-term bonds etc. Capital Market can be further divided into three sub-categories:

I) Fixed-Income Capital Market      
II) Equity Market      
III) Derivatives Market


Section :6

Financial Markets & Instruments at a Glance


The following diagram outlines the various categories of financial markets and instruments:




Section :7

The Investment Process


An investor’s portfolio is simply a collection of investment assets. For example, an investor’s portfolio might comprise of a collection of stocks, bonds, mutual fund shares, commodities and some real estate. Once the portfolio is established, it is updated or “re-balanced” by selling existing securities and using the proceeds to buy new securities, or by selling/buying securities to decrease/increase the size of the portfolio. As mentioned, investment assets can be categorized into broad asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and so on. The investment process can broadly be divided into the following three steps:

Asset Allocation: Allocation of an investment portfolio across broad asset classes such as stocks, bonds shares of mutual funds, real estate, etc.

Security Selection: Choice of specific securities within each asset class.

Trade Execution: Actual purchase (or sale at some later stage) of the security through a broker or dealer.

The steps will be discussed in greater detail in later chapters.


Section :8

The Risk-Return Trade-Off


Investors invest for anticipated future returns that can not be predicted precisely. There will almost always be risk associated with investments and actual or realized return will almost always deviate from the expected return anticipated at the start of the investment period. If two securities with similar returns have varying degree of risk, all investors will obviously go for the low risk security and the high demand would increase the price of security, thus decreasing the expected return. Hence, based on market demand dynamics, the security with low risk will offer a lower return while the security with higher risk will offer higher return. This is the fundamental truth in financial markets: securities with high risk will have to offer a high expected return to be attractive for investment while securities with low risk will still have demand even if they offer a lower return. Hence we see that government bonds have a very low expected return while the expected return of stocks (which are supposed to be more risky) is much higher in comparison. Therefore, the return is directly proportional to the risk and in order to earn higher return, investors will have to accept higher risk.









Section :9

Types of Investors


While there are many types of investors, they can broadly be classified into two categories:

I) Individual Investors: These include individuals who want to invest their savings into stocks, bonds, etc. Any one of us, who calls up a broker and places an order for a stock or bond, is an individual investor. In most cases, the portfolio of individual investors is not very large and comprises of only a few securities.


II) Institutional Investors: Institutional investors are organizations that pool investor funds for making investments and capitalize on their superior research and portfolio management capabilities. Examples of institutional investors include mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, endowment funds, commercial banks, etc. In addition to the accumulation of superior analytical and information resources, institutional investors also benefit from economies of scale.











Monday, October 13, 2014

What I Suspect and Fear for the Stock Markets

What I Suspect and Fear for the Stock Markets http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-13/what-i-suspect-and-fear-for-the-stock-markets

Friday, July 12, 2013

Gold Traders Most Bullish in Five Weeks After Fed: Commodities


Gold Traders Most Bullish in Five Weeks After Fed: Commodities

Gold traders are the most bullish in five weeks after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. still needs stimulus.
Nineteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, nine were bearish and three neutral. Gold fell 23 percent last quarter, with the decline accelerating after the Fed chairman said June 19 that bond buying could slow if the economy improves. Unprecedented money printing by central banks since the global recession boosted bullion buying as a hedge against inflation.
Customers browse gold jewelry and negotiate prices inside a gold store in the Dubai Gold Souk in the Deira district of Dubai. Jewelry and coin demand around the world surged after gold dropped into a bear market in April. Photographer: Duncan Chard/Bloomberg
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Dominic Schnider, head of commodities research at UBS AG’s wealth-management unit in Singapore, talks about the outlook for crude oil and gold. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Scott Carter, chief executive officer of Lear Capital, talks about the outlook for gold prices and his investment strategy for the precious metal. He speaks with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg)
June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, talks about the gold market. He speaks with Scarlet Fu and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Gold is heading for the first annual drop in 13 years after some investors lost faith in it as a store of value. The retreat in prices to a 34-month low on June 28 spurred demand for jewelry and gold coins, diminishing supply and driving the cost of borrowing the metal to a 4 1/2-year high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“With the Fed comments, with the increased cost of funding a short position and some recalibration in peoples’ thinking about the end of quantitative easing, the onus is really on the bears now,” said Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Sharps Pixley Ltd., a brokerage handling physical bullion in London. “Physical demand is supporting the market very nicely.”

Gold Price

The metal fell 24 percent to $1,279.80 an ounce in London this year. Prices rose 8.4 percent from $1,180.50 on June 28. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities declined 0.4 percent since the start of January and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rose 8.9 percent. Treasuries lost 2.8 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Gold as much as doubled from 2008 to a record $1,921.15 in September 2011 as the U.S. central bank, which currently buys $85 billion of bonds a month, led nations in cutting interest rates and purchasing debt. The U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against six major trading partners, slid from a three-year high after Bernanke said two days ago that “highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future” is still required.
The one-month lease rate for bullion, which reflects the cost of borrowing metal, reached 0.3038 percent on July 10, the highest since December 2008. Limited appetite to lend gold against “decent” desire to borrow indicates a tightening forward market, Standard Chartered Plc wrote in a report.

Physical Demand

Jewelry and coin demand around the world surged after gold dropped into a bear market in April. The U.S. Mint sold 21,000 ounces of American Eagle coins so far this month, on course to beat the 57,000-ounce June total, data on its website show.
Demand is weakening elsewhere, with Australia’s Perth Mint saying its coin and bar sales dropped for a second month in June, falling 47 percent. Physical consumption isn’t as strong as in April, partly because India, the biggest buyer, imposed curbs on imports last month to trim its trade deficit, Standard Chartered said. Indian imports probably slid 80 percent in June and will be “weak” in July and August, the bank estimates.
Investors sold 645.45 metric tons from gold-backed exchange-traded products this year, erasing $60 billion from the value of the funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holdings reached 1,983.6 tons this week, the lowest since May 2010. Billionaire John Paulson’s PFR Gold Fund tumbled 23 percent in June, extending this year’s loss to 65 percent. He owns the largest stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion ETP.

U.S. Expectations

U.S. inflation has so far failed to accelerate and higher interest rates would also reduce gold’s allure. Expectations for gains in U.S. consumer prices, as measured by the break-even rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, fell 16 percent this year. Fed funds futures showed a 48.4 percent probability that policy makers will raise the benchmark rate by December 2014, versus 32.9 percent on June 18, the day before the central bank’s last policy statement.
“It will be difficult for gold to go back to its March levels any time soon,” said Nic Johnson, who helps manage $30 billion of commodity assets at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California. “The overall sentiment around gold has turned negative.”
Hedge funds and other large speculators cut bets on higher prices by 83 percent since October. They held a net-long 34,301 contracts on July 2, from 31,197 a week earlier, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says gold will reach $1,050 by the end of 2014 and Credit Suisse Group AG forecasts $1,150 in about a year. The decline is nearing an end and a drop below levels some mines need to break even will help halt the rout, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in a report yesterday.

Sugar Survey

Three of 10 people surveyed expect raw sugar to fall next week and three were bullish. The commodity slid 18 percent to 16.09 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York this year.
Fifteen of 27 surveyed anticipate lower corn prices and 10 said the grain will rise, while 11 of 27 said soybeans will gain and the same number expect falling prices. Fourteen traders predicted declines in wheat and seven were bullish. Corn fell 26 percent to $5.1475 a bushel this year inChicago. The December contract, which reflects supply after the U.S. harvest, is down 14 percent this year. Soybeans lost 9.7 percent to $12.73 a bushel, as wheat slipped 12 percent to $6.815 a bushel.
Nine traders and analysts surveyed expect copper to climb next week, four were bearish and five were neutral. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, fell 12 percent to $6,961.25 a ton this year.

Raw Materials

The S&P GSCI gauge of raw materials climbed to a three-month high yesterday. It fell for three months through June, the worst run since May last year, on mounting concern that economic growth will slow in China, the biggest user of everything from copper to coal. Global growth will struggle to accelerate this year, the International Monetary Fund said July 9, reducing its forecast to 3.1 percent from April’s 3.3 percent.
“Tapering should be a good thing from a fundamental point of view if the U.S. economy becomes stronger,” said Carole Ferguson, an analyst at SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP, a broker and adviser in London. “Everyone knows that Chinese growth is slowing down, but it’s just a question of whether you get a hard or soft landing. What you’ll see maybe are commodities being supported at these levels, not necessarily going up.”
Gold survey results: Bullish: 19 Bearish: 9 Hold: 3
Copper survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 4 Hold: 5
Corn survey results: Bullish: 10 Bearish: 15 Hold: 2
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 11 Bearish: 11 Hold: 5
Wheat survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 14 Hold: 2
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 3 Hold: 4
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 3 Hold: 4
White sugar premium results: Widen: 1 Narrow: 2 Neutral: 7